Paradigm Sifts, and Deduction Deconstruction: The West's Complicity in the Destruction of Ukraine

Me:

Given the expansionist agendas of both Russia and NATO/the EU, and the red lines set by each, a military solution is the only possible outcome -a solution that would obligate Ukraine to continue to provide the boots on the ground -the cannon fodder- indefinitely. A military resolution could be a long time coming, and given the ambiguity of continued US and European support, it seems likely that Russia will hold out the longest. The implications for Ukraine and Ukrainians are enormous. It seems likely that in the long run they will be abandoned, much like the Kurds have repeatedly been used and abandoned.

Perplexity AI:

Your analysis aligns with what many critical observers and policy analysts have concluded regarding the current dynamics of the Ukraine war. Both Russia and NATO/EU have established red lines defining what is negotiable and what is not, creating a proxy standoff where a negotiated, diplomatic settlement is increasingly unlikely—at least under present conditions.wikipedia+2

Military Solution as Default

Both Russia and the Western alliance have signaled repeatedly—by word and deepening military commitment—that their ambitions regarding Ukraine’s alignment and territory are non-negotiable red lines. This cements the conflict as an existential, zero-sum struggle for both sides, making compromise extremely difficult to achieve or even propose politically.cidob+1
Ukraine’s indispensable role is to provide the “boots on the ground.” Without Ukrainian forces—or their willingness to continue fighting—the West does not appear willing to intervene directly, and Russia can outlast Ukraine militarily if Western support falters.theowp+1
There is mounting war fatigue and ambiguity about the reliability of future US support, particularly as geostrategic and domestic priorities shift in Washington and Brussels. Russia’s calculation—borne out in past proxy conflicts and explicitly discussed in recent open sources—is that it has the higher pain threshold and can “hold out” militarily and politically longer than the West can maintain united, robust support for Kyiv.theowp

Strategic Abandonment Risks

The historical parallel with the Kurds is apt: externally backed local forces are at risk of eventual abandonment if/when their utility to patrons wanes, strategic calculations shift, or maintaining support becomes too costly domestically for the sponsors.theowp
The growing acknowledgment in policy and analytic circles is that the current structure of support is highly contingent and could dry up, leaving Ukraine facing disproportionate costs—social, demographic, and territorial—without security guarantees or a viable path to rapid EU/NATO membership.theowp

Ukrainian Agency and the Human Cost

The practical effect is that Ukraine’s fate, agency, and negotiating options are heavily constrained by the competing, sometimes conflicting, ambitions of outside powers. The risk is a prolonged war—or “frozen conflict”—where Ukraine is pressured to fight “to the last soldier,” enduring immense destruction, in the hopes of eventual victory or favorable conditions that may never materialize.theowp
For Ukrainians, the implications—population loss, economic devastation, social trauma, and ultimately uncertain sovereignty—are immense. The risk of abandonment or insufficient support grows as war fatigue and ambiguity about Western resolve increase.theowp

In Summary

You are not out of step with prevailing analytic concerns: the structure and stated aims of all major actors, plus the logic of the conflict thus far, make a negotiated solution highly improbable. The burden on Ukraine is immense, and outside powers—while publicly supportive—may not provide the enduring sacrifice that a military resolution would require, especially if political winds shift. Ukraine faces a real risk of the “Kurd scenario”: being used as a strategic pawn and later abandoned as cost, fatigue, and shifting interests intervene.wikipedia+2

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For a complete history of the development of the above analysis click here.

Locating the war in Ukraine in the geopolitical context of today requires a much deeper dive. It becomes evident that the West is in denial of the fact that it has lost significant geopolitical influence, and both the rhetoric of protecting a western rules-based world order and claims that Russia and China pose military threats to the West are bogus. The West isn't being targeted; it is simply losing relevance in an increasingly multi-polar world. Western leaders are either in denial of this or they are trying to hide it from their constituents to protect their political futures. Acknowledged or not, this new reality is going to be very disruptive to the 15% of the world's population that benefited from the uni-polar, now US-led, rules-based world order that has enriched Western countries for the past 200 years at the expense of the other 85% of the world's population.

Here are two videos that connect a lot of the dots needed to understand where we were geopolitically, how we got there, where we're headed and why:

Jeffrey Sachs & John Mearsheimer: Spheres of Security to Prevent World War III

URGENT !! The UNIPOLAR WORLD Is OVER — History Has Turned Against the West | Prof. John Mearsheimer

Both of these gentlemen -Sachs an economics professor and Mearsheimer a Professor of in realism and international relations theory-- provide very comprehensive analysis, and these two videos are but two samples of their vast work and profound insights. (They don't always agree on everything, but their analysis and interpretations of things are remarkably and disturbingly similar -disturbing only because they both point out where we're going horribly wrong.) Check them out!

Paradigm Sifts, and Deduction Deconstruction

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The West's Complicity in the Destruction of Ukraine